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Zufall hat seine eigenen Gesetze: Über das Rechnen mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten

Zufall hat seine eigenen Gesetze: Über das Rechnen mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten

          
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About the Book

Dass wir als Menschen existieren und uns Gedanken machen können, hängt vom Zusammenspiel von zufällig aufgetretenen Mutationen und der Anpassung an zufällige Umwelt- und Klimabedingungen ab. Wie sähe die Welt heute aus, wenn nicht vor sechsundsechzig Millionen Jahren zufällig ein Asteroid auf die Erde eingeschlagen wäre und damit das Sauriersterben eingeleitet hätte? Aber auch unser persönliches Schicksal wird oft durch den Zufall beeinflusst. Wenn wir nicht zufällig zu einer bestimmten Zeit an einem bestimmten Ort gewesen wären, hätte unser Leben vielleicht einen anderen Verlauf gehabt. Wissenschaftler sind sich nicht einig, was genau unter Zufall zu verstehen ist. Sie haben aber ein mathematisches Modell entwickelt, um das Rechnen mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten zu ermöglichen. Dieses Modell wird in vielen Bereichen wie Naturwissenschaften, Sozialwissenschaften oder Medizin erfolgreich eingesetzt. Inhalt dieses Buches ist es, einige Konsequenzen aus den mathematischen Axiomen darzustellen. Dazu gehören zum Beispiel das Gesetz der großen Zahlen oder der zentrale Grenzwertsatz, welcher besagt, dass man viele zufällige Ereignisse näherungsweise mit einer Glockenkurve beschreiben kann. Nicht immer stimmen die Ergebnisse mit unserer Intuition überein. Anhand diverser Paradoxa wie zum Beispiel dem Geburtstagsparadoxon und dem berühmten Ziegenparadoxon werden solche Widersprüche analysiert und aufgelöst. Außerdem wird auf Anwendungen der Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie wie die Statistik oder die Entscheidungstheorie eingegangen. Ziel ist es, die Methodik kennenzulernen, damit man publizierte Untersuchungen, welche sich auf angeblich statistisch abgesicherte Aussagen beziehen, kritisch hinterfragen kann. Das Buch kommt nicht ohne mathematische Formeln aus. Es werden aber keine tiefen Kenntnisse in Maß- oder Integrationstheorie vorausgesetzt. Für die meisten beschriebenen Ableitungen reichen Grundkenntnisse über Mengenlehre und ein Verständnis für mathematische Zusammenhänge aus.


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783754324806
  • Publisher: Books on Demand
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: N
  • Sub Title: Über das Rechnen mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten
  • Width: 148 mm
  • ISBN-10: 3754324802
  • Publisher Date: 01 Apr 2022
  • Height: 210 mm
  • No of Pages: 438
  • Spine Width: 23 mm
  • Weight: 521 gr


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Zufall hat seine eigenen Gesetze: Über das Rechnen mit Wahrscheinlichkeiten
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