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Wahlprognosemodelle: Der Ansatz von Gschwend und Norpoth

Wahlprognosemodelle: Der Ansatz von Gschwend und Norpoth

          
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About the Book

Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2005 im Fachbereich Mathematik - Statistik, Note: 2,3, Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg, Veranstaltung: Seminar: Empirische Wahlforschung, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Die vielen Fernsehsender, Zeitschriften und Zeitungen wollen stets die aktuellsten Umfragen der Öffentlichkeit präsentieren und die Meinungsforscher des Emnid Instituts, Forsa, Infratest Dimap, Allensbach, der Forschungsgruppe Wahlen und Polis werden dieser ständig steigenden Nachfrage gerecht. Allerdings zeigen diese Institute mit den Umfragen vor der Wahl nur ein demoskopisches Stimmungsbild und keine wirklich genaue Prognose 1. Die letzten Umfragen vor den Bundestagswahlen zeigen eine gute Tendenz, wie viel Prozent die Parteien bei der Wahl bekommen. Meistens weichen diese um 1 oder 2 Prozentpunkte vom Endergebnis ab, aber selten gibt es eine größere Abweichung. Diese geringen Abweichungen können aber schon darüber entscheiden, welche Parteien regieren können. Deshalb können die Umfragen der Meinungsforschungsinstitute die Politik und die Bevölkerung beeinflussen. Bei der Bundestagswahl 2002 hatte die ARD in der Wahlprognose direkt am Wahlabend die CDU so stark vor der SPD gesehen, dass sich die CDU schon als Wahlsieger feierte. Dahingegen hatte die Forschungsgruppe Wahlen vorhergesagt, dass SPD und CDU genau die gleichen Stimmenanteile haben, so wie es schließlich beim Endergebnis feststand. Außerdem können die Bürger bei ihrer Wahlentscheidung durch die Umfragen beeinflusst werden, wenn sie Mitleid mit der Partei hätten, die in den Umfragen klar hinten liegt oder sie verstärkt zur Wahl gehen, wenn ein knappes Ergebnis vorhergesagt wird. Prof. Dr. Helmut Norpoth von der State University of New York at Stony Brook, die zu den wichtigsten politikwissenschaftlichen Forschungseinrichtungen in den USA gehört, und Dr. Thomas Gschwend vom Mannheimer Zentrum für Europäische Sozialforschung entwickelten ein Wahlprognosemodell für Bundestagswahlen, das nur den Stimmen


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783638662727
  • Publisher: Grin Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Grin Verlag
  • Height: 210 mm
  • No of Pages: 36
  • Series Title: German
  • Sub Title: Der Ansatz von Gschwend und Norpoth
  • Width: 148 mm
  • ISBN-10: 3638662721
  • Publisher Date: 11 Jul 2007
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: N
  • Spine Width: 2 mm
  • Weight: 59 gr


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