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Ursachen von Banken- und Zahlungsbilanzkrisen

Ursachen von Banken- und Zahlungsbilanzkrisen

          
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About the Book

Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2005 im Fachbereich BWL - Wirtschaftspolitik, Note: 1,3, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Die folgende Arbeit setzt sich mit dem gleichzeitigen Auftreten von Banken- und Zahlungsbilanzkrisen auseinander und bedient sich der empirischen Untersuchung von Kaminsky und Reinhart (1999). Die Autoren versuchen durch den Vergleich von Banken- und Zahlungsbilanzkrisen (twin crises) gemeinsame Verhaltensmuster herauszufinden, mögliche Verbindungen zu untersuchen, sowie Symmetrien und gegenseitige Abhängigkeiten zwischen den Krisen zu erkennen. Nach Kaminsky und Reinhart (1999) werden Zeiträume, in denen Zahlungsbilanzkrisen innerhalb von 48 Monaten einer Bankenkrise folgen als Zwillingskrisen (twin crises) bezeichnet. Während in den letzten Jahren die Literatur sich entweder auf Zahlungsbilanz- oder Bankenkrisen konzentriert hat, wurde eine mögliche Verbindung weniger behandelt und trotz des Auftretens von Zwillingskrisen getrennt voneinander betrachtet. Nach ruhigeren 1980er-Jahren wurde mit zunehmenderen Krisen die Thematik neu geweckt. Die neuere Literatur nahm zunehmend auch psychologische Faktoren auf, wie beispielsweise selbsterfüllende Erwartungen (self-fulfilling expectations) und Herdenverhalten (herding behavior), sowie den Faktor der politischen Wahlen. Während sich eher mit den theoretischen Aspekten beschäftigt wurde, blieb eine empirische Untersuchung aus. Ziel dieser Arbeit ist es die Charakteristika von Zwillingskrisen aufgrund makroökonomischer Indikatoren herauszufinden, und gewisse Interdependenzen zu erkennen. 76 Zahlungsbilanz- und 26 Bankenkrisen von 1970 bis 1995 aus Industrie-, Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer wurden untersucht. Es lässt sich erkennen, dass eine Bankenkrise die Wahrscheinlichkeit des Auftretens einer Zahlungsbilanzkrise erhöht. Auch haben Zwillingskrisen einen stärkeren negativen wirtschaftlichen Schaden zur Folge. Anhand der makroökonomischen Indikatoren un


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783638670760
  • Publisher: Grin Publishing
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: N
  • Spine Width: 5 mm
  • Width: 148 mm
  • ISBN-10: 3638670767
  • Publisher Date: 23 Jul 2007
  • Height: 210 mm
  • No of Pages: 88
  • Series Title: German
  • Weight: 127 gr


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