Schedule quantitative risk analysis (SQRA) is a process of calculating the overall probability or chance of completing a project on time and on budget. Quantification uses various approaches and methods. Duration ranging is the most popular one and often referred to as the "traditional method" of schedule risk analysis. It is simple and easy to understand.
New and upcoming project managers, leaders, planners, and schedulers would love to wrap their heads around this special risk-based knowledge area and will enjoy reading this book. It is because one forgets that management tools only facilitate the route and provide quick indicators. The analysis resides mainly under the responsibility of a qualified risk-based project management practitioner like you are. There's no claim whatsoever that the tool will do or can do everything upon command.
Knowledge of the process and understanding of the reference benchmarks employed and how they were formulated are very important in addition to being tool-savvy. The tool is a vehicle to get you where you need to be, quicker and more accurate. One must use the tool to the "tool's right" for the project to succeed, to set it up properly for speedy and correct turnarounds less those manual errors.
It was observed that some will pretend to know the quantitative tool and the processes involved, to the detriment of the company they worked in. Some slice and dice things that they have no clear idea about. It's time for all practitioners to sharpen the saw, to know exactly what needs to be done, why they are doing what they are doing, and finally for the more qualified persons to perform what's rightfully their area, the expertise that of schedule quantitative risk assessment.
Intellectual deceit and incompetence are not good. They are also a bad combination. Ignorance is inexcusable and has to be treated with dedicated learning. As such, I promised myself about three years ago that I will write a book on traditional SQRA. I have done it most shortly and simply so everyone can understand.
Through this book, you can learn at your own pace. Each Lesson uncovers a certain aspect of risk analysis. It discusses fundamental knowledge in the tool (OPRA) and related risk-based processes. I want the readers to confidently embark on schedule quantitative risk analysis without apprehension, with the absence of doubt and anxiety because it is done properly. You are doing it right!
The traditional method of quantification is also called the three-point estimating method by many risk management practitioners. It looks at risk events and estimates uncertainties using three values of a given quantity such as duration, quantity, and cost. The traditional method is applicable to cost risk analysis. It is excellent in capturing time-bound cost elements. The skills needed to perform SQRA has eluded many even as they try to learn how to effectively utilize the tool. Relying on bits and pieces of information without understanding the quantitative process is a major sticking point. I intend to address them, giving you, the readers, full understanding of the subject.
Isn't that what you want? Of course, you do!
