Rise and Decline of Civilizations: Lessons for the Jewish People is a thought experiment in which the author examines the work of 23 historians of the last 2,400 years, from Thucydides to Jared Diamond, who describe the rise and decline of nations and civilizations. None of these is a historian of Judaism. The key question of the book is whether the reasons that explain the rise, decline, and fall of other civilizations could apply to the Jews as well. The answer of the author is a qualified yes. From the work of these historians he extracts 12 "drivers," or factors that explain rise and decline, from religion to natural catastrophes. Reviewing the Jewish history of more than 3,000 years against the background of these drivers opens fascinating new vistas for the general reader, and may be particularly useful to historians and politicians.

Table of Contents:
Acknowledgements • Foreword • Introduction: A Thought Experiment • Part I – QUESTIONS OF DEFINITION AND METHODOLOGY • Introduction • Chapter 1: Civilization or Culture? • Chapter 2: At the Crossroads: The Trouble with “Rising”, “Thriving”, and “Declining” • Chapter 3: A Selection of Historians: Three Categories • Chapter 4: On Philosophy of History • Chapter 5: Obstacles to Foresight • Part II – HISTORIANS ON RISE AND DECLINE • Introduction • Chapter 1: Thucydides, Greece, ca. 460-400 BCE • Chapter 2: Sima Qian, China, ca. 145-90 BCE • Chapter 3: Ibn Khaldun, Tunisia, 1332-1406 CE • Chapter 4: Edward Gibbon, UK, 1737-1794 • Chapter 5: Jacob Burckhardt, Switzerland, 1818-1897 • Chapter 6: Max Weher, Germany, 1864-1920 • Chapter 7: Oswald Spengler, Germany, 1880-1936 • Chapter 8: Johan Huizinga, Netherlands, 1872-1945 • Chapter 9: Arnold Toynbee, UK, 1889-1975 • Chapter 10: Pitirim Sorokin, USA, 1889-1968 • Chapter 11: Fernand Braudel, France, 1902-1985 • Chapter 12: Marshall G.S. Hodgson, USA, 1922-1968 • Chapter 13: Bernard Lewis, USA, 1916- • Chapter 14: Jonathan I. Israel, USA, 1946- • Chapter 15: Paul Kennedy, USA, 1945- • Chapter 16: Jared Diamond, USA, 1937- • Chapter 17: Bryan Ward-Perkins, UK, 1952- • Chapter 18: Mancur Olson, USA, 1932-1998 • Chapter 19: Peter Turchin, USA, 1957- • Chapter 20: Christopher Chase-Dunn, USA, 1944- and Thomas D. Hall, USA, 1946- • Chapter 21: Joseph A. Tainter, USA, 1949- • Chapter 22: Arthur Herman, USA, 1956- • Part III – MACRO-HISTORICAL CONDITIONS OF RISE, GOLDEN AGE, AND DECLINE • Introduction • Chapter 1: “Challenge-and-Response” • Chapter 2: Windows of Opportunity • Chapter 3: Global Up- and Downturns • Chapter 4: Thriving Civilizations, or the Myth of a Golden Age • Chapter 5: Cultural Accomplishments of Thriving Civilizations • Chapter 6: Decline Has Multiple Causes • Chapter 7: Global Futures: “End of Civilization” or “Decline of the West”? • Part IV – DRIVERS OF RISE AND DECLINE OF CIVILIZATIONS: GENERAL OBSERVATIONS AND JEWISH HISTORY • Introduction • Chapter 1: Religion: Identity Safeguards and their Downsides • Chapter 2: Extra-Rational Bonds: Tacit Consensus or Group Cohesion • Chapter 3: Education, Science and Technology: Drivers of the Future • Chapter 4: Language: A Factor in Rise and Decline • Chapter 5: Creative Leadership and Political Elites • Chapter 6: Numbers and Critical Mass • Chapter 7: Economic Foundations of Long-Lasting Civilizations • Chapter 8: War: A Double-Edged Sword • Chapter 9: Geopolitics and Civilizational Affinities • Chapter 10: Internal Dissent • Chapter 11: “Fortune” or Chance Events • Chapter 12: Natural and Health Disasters • Part V – DRIVERS OF TRANSFORMATION: TWO CASE STUDIES • Introduction • Chapter 1: Transforming a Small Country into a Great Power: The Dutch Republic • Chapter 2: Transforming Great-Power Decline into New Power Rise: Turkey • Outlook and Conclusions • Afterword • Appendix • Appendix A: A Framework for Policy-Makers • Appendix B: IPPI Brainstorming Participants • Selected Bibliography • Notes • Index