Excerpt from Prospects for Foreign Trade in Cotton

It is generally expected that U S. Cotton acreage and production in 1959-60 will rise appreciably above 1958 levels. This belief is based on two facts: the termination of that part of the Soil Bank Program under which nearly 5 million acres of land were held out of cotton production in 1958; and the provisions of the Agricultural Act of 1958 that give farmers the Option of exceeding their base allotment by as much as 40 percent. Thus for some years to come there promises to be ample U. S. Cotton on hand to meet all fore see able demand.

Cotton production is trending upward in many foreign producing countries. This fact is reflected in the past levels of production, in the expansion plans of some countries, and the manner in which resources are being mobilized to achieve cotton production goals.

Among the countries that have shown the most important gains above their 1950-54 averages are 4 that have more than tripled their production by 1957 or 1958 and 9 more that have at least doubled their 1950-54 average. These 13 countries, in the aggregate, have increased their production from just over bales in 1950-54 to about 1 million bales at the present time.

As impressive as these gains are, they are dwarfed when compared with increases during the same period of nearly 2 million bales in Mainland China, about 1 million bales in the ussr, slightly over a million bales in India, and about three-fourths of a million bales in Mexico. On balance, total foreign production has increased since the 1950-54 period from slightly over 23 million bales to 29 million, or 26 percent. Communist countries showed a 35-percent increase, while other foreign countries ih creased production 21 percent. Meanwhile, cotton production ia the United States declined over 3 million bales, or 22 percent, and in Brazil it declined a third of a million bales, or 23 percent.

From the standpoint of the role that the increased production plays in the various countries, a number of different patterns emerge. Some countries are encouraging ex pansion with a view to bringing their production more nearly in line with the raw cotton requirements of their domestic textile industry. Others, especially the French and Portuguese areas in Africa, are trying to help their mother countries reduce import requirements from outside sources. Still others generally try not to import cotton if they can avoid it, except for specialty qualities. They plan to get along, so far as their basic textile industries are concerned, with whatever cotton they can produce. Within such a policy, they know that the only way to have more cotton textiles is to produce mo re cotton. One more category is composed of those countries that look upon increased cotton pro duction as a means of increasing foreign exchange earnings through exports.

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