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Prospect Theory. Unkorrekte Einschätzung von Wahrscheinlichkeiten

Prospect Theory. Unkorrekte Einschätzung von Wahrscheinlichkeiten

          
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About the Book

Bachelorarbeit aus dem Jahr 2018 im Fachbereich BWL - Allgemeines, Note: 2, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Wir treffen täglich Entscheidungen, seien es triviale Entscheidungen wie das Einkaufen von Lebensmitteln oder lebensverändernde Entscheidungen wie den Lebenspartner oder Beruf auszusuchen. Die Schwierigkeit Entscheidungen zu treffen liegt nicht an den vielzähligen möglichen Alternativen, sondern an der Unsicherheit der zukünftigen Folgen der gewählten Handlungsalternative. Die zukünftigen Folgen sind im Vorfeld nicht bestimmbar, da man zum Beispiel nicht weiß, ob man ein Gerichtsverfahren gewinnt oder ob ein Produkt den Markt erobern wird. Ist die Entscheidung die man treffen muss komplex und mit einer großen Anzahl von Alternativen mit großen Unsicherheiten verbunden, so gewinnen Verfahren, die eine systematische Entscheidungsfindung besitzen an Bedeutung. Es gibt zwei Theorien die Entscheidungsträgern die Auswahlmöglichkeit erleichtern sollen, die präskriptive und deskriptive Entscheidungstheorie. In dieser wissenschaftlichen Arbeit beziehen wir uns hauptsächlich auf die deskriptive Entscheidungstheorie. In der deskriptiven Entscheidungstheorie ist der von Daniel Kahneman und Amos Tversky veröffentlichte Artikel "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk" vertreten. In diesem Artikel wurde aufgezeigt, dass die Erwartungsnutzentheorie von den tatsächlichen Entscheidungen abweicht. Diese Abweichungen oder auch Verzerrungen werden Bias genannt und beeinflussen die Entscheidungsträger. In den folgenden Kapiteln werden diese Bias aufgezählt und es werden Maßnahmen erläutert wie man diese Verzerrungen im Controlling mildern kann.


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783668657953
  • Publisher: Grin Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Grin Verlag
  • Height: 210 mm
  • No of Pages: 36
  • Spine Width: 2 mm
  • Width: 148 mm
  • ISBN-10: 3668657955
  • Publisher Date: 13 Mar 2018
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: N
  • Weight: 59 gr


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