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Prognose von Aktienmärkten mit Marktstimmungsindikatoren

Prognose von Aktienmärkten mit Marktstimmungsindikatoren

          
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About the Book

Studienarbeit aus dem Jahr 2007 im Fachbereich BWL - Bank, Börse, Versicherung, Note: 1,3, Gottfried Wilhelm Leibniz Universität Hannover, Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: Eine Vielzahl von Aktienmarktzusammenbrüchen und spekulativen Blasen, ebenso wie ihre Erklärungsversuche, bestimmt die Forschung. Viele von diesen Ereignissen, welche zu dramatischen Änderungen von Aktienpreisen führten, sind mit rationalen Verhalten von Investren bzw. effizienten Märkten nicht erklärbar und somit nicht kompatibel mit der klassischen Finanztheorie, welche die vergangenen 30 Jahre der Finanzwelt beherrscht und beeinflusst hat. Validiert durch diese jüngste Aktienmarkthistorie manifestierte sich mehr und mehr die Psychologie in der Finanzwelt, Zweifel an der Effizienzhypothese wuchsen und es entwickel-te sich ein "neues" Forschungsfeld "Behavioral Finance", welches Schwankungen in Wertpapierpreisbildungen bzw. Aktienerträgen mittels Stimmungen von Investoren zu erklären versucht. Um Aktienmärkte transparenter zu machen und Aktienerträge prognostizieren zu können, versuchen Forscher Investorenstimmungen zu identifizieren und schließlich zu quantifizieren, woraus sich eine Vielzahl von Möglichkeiten zur Stimmungsmessung und divergenten Ergebnissen ergibt. Ferner prüften Baker und Wurgler (2006) empirische Effekte von Investorenstimmung auf Aktienerträge, um zu erforschen, wie Investorenstimmung Aktienerträge beeinflusst. Sie erarbeiteten in "Investor Sentiment and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns" Nährungsvariablen für Investorenstimmung und formten hieraus einen Stimmungsindex. Aufgrund der dargestellten Forschungsaktualität von Abhängigkeiten zwischen Investorenstimmung und Aktienerträgen, liegt mein Schwerpunkt auf einer kritischen Auseinandersetzung der Vorgehensweise zur Stimmungsmessung und den Resultaten von Baker und Wurgler mittels einer Gegenüberstellung verschiedener wissenschaftlicher Erkenntnisse. Das Hauptresutat ihrer Studie zeigt, dass bei Vorliegen einer optimistischen


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783638915526
  • Publisher: Grin Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Grin Verlag
  • Height: 210 mm
  • No of Pages: 24
  • Series Title: German
  • Weight: 45 gr
  • ISBN-10: 3638915522
  • Publisher Date: 26 Feb 2008
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: N
  • Spine Width: 2 mm
  • Width: 148 mm


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