Today the market is risky. That's why I write this book evaluating the possibility of a coming market crash. My simple technique that does not require charts told us to leave the market on around March 20, 2022.

It has been more than 10 years since the market recovered in 2009. It is overdue for a market plunge. We need about three market plunges to get back to our regular frequency ratio of about 2.5 in 10 years.

If you follow my market timing, we have experienced some false signals. However, a corrective signal tells you to reenter the market and hence most of the time you do not lose anything except the tax consequences in taxable accounts. Besides exiting the market briefly, you are still fully invested most of the time. It is far better than a best seller that tells us to exit the market even in 2009.

Conservative investors should sell their riskiest investments and accumulate some cash today. Market crash could have caused more than 40% loss from the peak. My market timing techniques will not detect the peak but would reduce further losses. In addition, cash is king during market crash as they can reenter the market with cash. That's how big fortunes are made. Imagine the big bargains in buying houses in 2008 but not the 'bargains' in internet stocks in 2000.

Previously we did not find any triggers. Today the trigger is the trade wars, particularly the one with China, the pandemic and the inflation.

This book explains why we may have a market crash coming and how to prepare it. It also includes simple techniques (no subscription and no tool to buy) to detect market plunges that have worked in the last two major market plunges. It will not identify the peaks and bottoms (and no one can). It may not give us ample time to prepare as the last two.

Our simple chart tells us to exit and reenter only two times from 2000 to 2010 and it has only one false alarm telling us to exit and return briefly (more false alarms from 2011 to 2016). The market before 2000 was quite different to today's market and that is why I did not use the older data. You should use this book as a reference and study market timing before you commit fully.

This book gives you tools to check the soundness of both fundamentals and technical indicators of the market. When both turn out to be unsound, to me it is the time to leave the market. We have two methods to determine the technical indicators of the market: one does not require charting and the other does.

We will face false signals to tell us to leave the market and then tell us to return. In most cases, the losses are inconsequential except for the taxes in non-retirement accounts.

In this risky market, I recommend using trailing stops for the appreciated stocks. In a nutshell and as an example, you place a stop loss of your appreciated stock based on the current stock price (vs the stock price you paid for). I prefer 10% below the current market price or lower depending on how volatile the stock is and your risk tolerance.

Size: 215 pages (6*9).
Update: 05/2022.