Excerpt from Poultry and Egg Situation, Vol. 296: December 1977

Prospects for the poultry and egg industries point to larger production and lower market prices in 1978. But if feed costs average below a year ear lier in the first half as now expected, broiler and turkey producers will show favorable returns. Egg producers, however, will likely be in a cost-price squeeze by next year.

Production costs currently are below a year ago and likely will remain lower at least through the first half of 1978 because of 1977's large grain and soybean crops. Lower costs of feed ingredients are expected to offset the Continued uptrend in other costs of production and marketing.

Continued growth in the general economy and gains in consumers' real disposable incomes will help bolster the demand for poultry and eggs in 1978. However, poultry products will continue to face strong competition from large supplies of red meats. Grass-fed beef supplies are likely to be below 1977's levels, but fed beef and pork produc tion may increase sharply and push total red meat supplies above 1977's levels.

Egg output has picked up from the weather reduced levels of last summer and was almost 3 percent above a year earlier in October. Production is expected to continue to show this margin of increase during the remainder of 1977 and average 2 to 3 percent above a year earlier during the first half of 1978. Layer numbers next January 1 will likely be 2 to 3 percent above January 1, 1977. However, this margin of increase probably will not be maintained through the first half of 1978 because of prospects for unfavorable profit margins during part of the period. The rate of lay will likely surpass a year earlier because of a younger laying flock.

Egg prices have been weak since last winter and increased production has prevented the usual sea sonal price increases this fall. Cartoned egg prices in New York during october-december will average around 20 cents below the high levels of last fall. If egg output in the first half of 1978.is 2 to 3 percent above 1977, as now seems probable, egg prices will continue well below a year earlier.

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