Excerpt from Poultry and Egg Situation: March, 1978

Production costs are running below a year ear lier and are not expected to show the sharp increases of last spring. Corn and soybean supplies are large and, barring unforeseen circumstances, feed prices should remain farily stable in coming months. Thus broiler and turkey production likely will be profitable during most of 1978.

The outlook in coming months for poultry and eggs is for larger production and lower prices than a year earlier. Egg prices will drop sharply in com ing months and average below 1977 during most of 1978. Broiler and turkey prices are both currently higher than a year ago, but broiler prices likely will come under pressure in the spring and turkey prices probably will trail 1977 by late summer.

Egg production in January was 5 percent above a year earlier, as the laying flock was 2 percent larger and output per hen was up 3 percent. Layer numbers will likely average 2 to 3 percent above a year earlier in the first quarter. However, as fewer replacement pullets become available, the margin of increase over 1977 probably will shrink. Output per hen should continue higher than last year through most of 1978. Thus, egg production will be 3 to 4 percent above last year in the first half of 1978. A smaller increase is expected this summer, and output could be near 197 7 levels by the fall.

Egg prices in January were sharply below last year but they showed some unexpected strength in February. The rise in egg prices apparently was caused by difficulties in getting eggs to some mar kets. The strength is temporary and prices will drop well' below 1977 levels in coming months. Car toned Grade A large eggs in New York will aver age around 59 to 61 cents a dozen in the first quar ter of 1978, compared with 75 cents in January March 1977. Prices will decline seasonally in the spring and likely average 8 to 10 cents below the 58-cent average in the second quarter of 1977.

Broiler production in the first 6 weeks of 1978 averaged nearly 9 percent above a year earlier and will likely continue around 6 to 8 percent higher through mid-1978. Spurred by expectations of good profits in early 1978, producers are using all avail able hatching eggs. This limitation in hatchingeggs could slow the rate of expansion this summer. Also, expanding pork supplies later in the year will tend to slow broiler expansion.

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