"Politics, as complicated as it might appear, can be quite simple, if approached with a dose of humility. It has its language. In a way, it is like mathematics, with its own formula. Knowing the right formula is half the job done. Adopt the wrong formula and it leads down the valley of the shadow of failure. Especially, where it is a zero-sum game like ours. No two ways to it. No spinning your way. No marks for effort...
Politics might not be exact science, but it is science still. It is a systematised body of knowledge with its own methodologies and methods. It has its tools for disassembling and assembly, interrogation and projection. It has tools for study trends and patterns as basis for making forecast. Even then, some of the most gifted scientists in politics are not necessarily formally trained. Some do not have the grasp or knowledge of these tools, but they are able to use them informally. Perhaps because politics is also art. There are fine details of politics that one can't box or subject to scientific experimentation or explanation. There are aspects that one cannot touch but only feel. There is the place of history, culture, tradition and emotion, in defiance of logic. Without a good nose for these or a firm feel of the street, one can be led astray...
All politics is local, it is often said. Largely true, as the tap-root of politics runs deep down. Even though the fruits might be more evident at the top, the bottom nurtures the top. Contrary to what is often put out, the bottom shapes the top, just as much the top is influential at the bottom. But this is not even about the drop-down or bottom-up dialectics but about how localised politics is. What rocks the boat in one locality will not move the boat in the other. What will rattle the cage in Lokoja will not move the needle in Ogoja. To each locale, its own peculiarities. Each has the song it dances to. Each has issues that are close to its heart, determining the direction the pendulum swings.
To not understand the peculiarities of each community, the contours and rivers that run a ring around its belly is to indulge in fantasy, the kind we have seen some 'idealists', out of naivety and arrogance, engage in. You can hardy disrupt from the top, without a thorough understanding of the bottom. You cannot take on the task of seeking to disrupt politics in Nigeria without an understanding of the localised nature of politics. You cannot approach politics with a wholesale mentality, designing solutions at the top, with the mind-set of Abuja or Lagos."
