LÝ LuẬn Thoát Trung

LÝ LuẬn Thoát Trung

          
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About the Book

Trong diễn văn đọc tại Seattle tối 22 tháng 9, 2015, Tập Cận Bình phát biểu: "Không có cái gì gọi là 'Bẫy Thucydides' trong thế giới cả. Nhưng nếu các cường quốc tiếp tục phạm phải các sai lầm chiến lược, họ tạo ra bẫy cho chính họ." Nói vậy chứng tỏ khái niệm "Bẫy Thucydides" đã in sâu vào suy nghĩ của họ Tập.


"Bẫy Thucydides" phát xuất từ câu nói của sử gia Thucydides (460 BC-400 BC) rút ra sau khi nghiên cứu và hoàn thành bộ sử Lịch sử Chiến tranh Peloponnesian (History of The Peloponnesian).


Nguyên văn câu nói của Thucydides: "Sự trỗi dậy của Athens và nỗi lo lắng được lan truyền mạnh ở Sparta sẽ làm cho chiến tranh không thể nào tránh khỏi." (It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this inspired in Sparta that made war inevitable.)[1]


Đề án "Thucydides's Trap" tại Harvard Kennedy School tổng kết 16 xung đột xảy ra trong lịch sử thế giới. Trong số đó chỉ có 3 xung đột là tránh được chiến tranh và 13 xung đột khác đã dẫn tới chiến tranh. Nói một cách dễ hiểu lãnh đạo của các quốc gia trong 13 cuộc chiến đó đã rơi vào "bẫy Thucydides". Thế Chiến Thứ Nhất và Thế Chiến thứ Hai là hai trường hợp rơi vào bẫy đẫm máu nhất.


Áp dụng vào quan hệ cạnh tranh giữa Mỹ và Trung Cộng, câu nói của Thucydides có thể viết lại cho thích hợp: "Sự trỗi dậy của Trung Cộng và nỗi lo lắng được lan truyền mạnh tại Mỹ sẽ làm chiến tranh Mỹ-Trung không thể nào tránh khỏi."


Phân tích của người viết dựa trên cơ sở chiến tranh là một chọn lựa không tránh khỏi giữa Trung Cộng (TC) và phe đồng minh dân chủ do Mỹ lãnh đạo trong tương lai.

[1] Thucydides 431 BC, THE HISTORY OF THE PELOPONNESIAN WAR. Translated by Richard Crawley



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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9781088010501
  • Publisher: Lotus Media
  • Publisher Imprint: Lotus Media
  • Height: 229 mm
  • No of Pages: 114
  • Spine Width: 7 mm
  • Width: 152 mm
  • ISBN-10: 1088010504
  • Publisher Date: 23 Oct 2021
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: Vietnamese
  • Returnable: Y
  • Weight: 181 gr


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