Excerpt from Livestock and Meat Situation, Vol. 177: February 1971

Red meat output will continue large in the first half of 1971, with substantially more pork boosting supplies above a year earlier. Livestock prices probably will average above late-fall lows in the first half although they will trail year-ago prices.

Fed cattle marketings this winter and spring will be close to a year ago but perhaps a little smaller than marketings last fall. Cattle feeders have stated plans to market 1 percent fewer cattle this winter than last, and there was little change in the combined total of steers on feed on January 1 weighing 700 to 900 pounds and heifers weighing 500 to 700 pounds. Marketings were up 3 percent last fall.

Fed cattle prices weakened during the second half of 1970. Choice steers at Omaha dropped from about $31 per 100 pounds in July to in December. Prices have strengthened in recent weeks and steers are currently about $30 per 100 pounds, around above a year ago. Prices are expected to continue firm in the coming months; fed cattle marketings may stay near 1970 levels and market weights likely will be lighter than last winter and spring. However, pork supplies will continue very large and will limit fed cattle price strength.

Feeder cattle prices declined seasonally last fall but were generally above prices a year earlier. Some price strength has developed this winter but the seasonal rise in the spring may be less than last spring. Pointing to less of a bloom on the market this year, there probably are more feeder cattle, feed costs are higher, and returns to cattle feeders have fallen off in recent months.

Cow slaughter in the first half of 1971 is expected to run somewhat under a year ago. Slaughter fell 12 percent last year. Cow prices at most Midwest markets in January were about $1 below a year ago. With continued large supplies of pork and imported beef, cow prices are expected to rise seasonally into spring, but to average a little below 197 0 prices through midyear.

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