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Kurzfristige Prognose von Aktienkursentwicklungen mit Hilfe von Ökonometrischen Methoden

Kurzfristige Prognose von Aktienkursentwicklungen mit Hilfe von Ökonometrischen Methoden

          
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About the Book

Das Buch behandelt die Möglichkeit, die Information von technischen Indikatoren zur Beschreibung des Aktienkurs-Verhaltens zur Prognose von kurzfristigen Trends der Aktienkurse zu benützen. Als statistisches Verfahren wird ein "discrete choice" Modell verwendet: In Abhängigkeit von den realisierten Werten der technischen Indikatoren wird ein steigender oder fallender Trend oder ein Gleichbleiben des Aktienkurses prognostiziert. Im 1.Kapitel werden Methoden der Fundamentalanalyse behandelt. Nach allgemeinen Verfahren der Wirtschafts- und Marktanalyse werden im Abschnitt "Klassische Methoden der Aktienpreisprognose" ökonomische Indikatoren und Finanzindikatoren vorgestellt, die auf die Aktienkurse Einfluss haben können. Das Kapitel "Technische Analyse" gibt erst eine Auflistung der "Charting" -Formationen, dann eine der technischen Indikatoren, zu den einzelnen Indikatoren wird auch angegeben, wie sie interpretiert werden. Das 3. Kapitel enthält eine Übersicht über die verwendeten statistischen Methoden, insbesondere die "discrete choice" Modelle und ihre statistische Behandlung und Eigenschaften. Das Kapitel 4: ist den Aktienmarkt Indizes der Istanbuler Börse gewidmet. Das fünfte Kapitel enthält den empirischen Teil des Buchs. Nach einer Beschreibung der analysierten Daten werden drei Modell-Typen spezifiziert. A) Das "ökonomische Modell" ist ein ARX-Modell, das die monatlichen Schlusskurse analysiert. B) Das "Finanzmodell" definiert die Quartals- Schlusskurse als Funktion von Finanzindikatoren, die aus den Unternehmensbilanzen abgeleitet werden. C) Das "Technische Modell" erklärt den Wert einer dreiwertigen Indikatorvariablen, welche die Richtung des Trends der täglichen Kursentwicklung anzeigt, als Funktion von technischen Indikatoren.


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9781530662869
  • Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Publisher Imprint: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform
  • Height: 254 mm
  • No of Pages: 322
  • Series Title: German
  • Weight: 557 gr
  • ISBN-10: 1530662869
  • Publisher Date: 21 Mar 2016
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: N
  • Spine Width: 17 mm
  • Width: 178 mm


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Kurzfristige Prognose von Aktienkursentwicklungen mit Hilfe von Ökonometrischen Methoden
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