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Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science

Forecast Verification: A Practitioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science

          
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Forecast Verification: A Practioner's Guide in Atmospheric Science, 2nd Edition provides an indispensible guide to this area of active research by combining depth of information with a range of topics to appeal both to professional practitioners and researchers and postgraduates. The editors have succeeded in presenting chapters by a variety of the leading experts in the field while still retaining a cohesive and highly accessible style. The book balances explanations of concepts with clear and useful discussion of the main application areas.

Reviews of first edition:

"This book will provide a good reference, and I recommend it especially for developers and evaluators of statistical forecast systems." (Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society; April 2004)

"...a good mixture of theory and practical applications...well organized and clearly written..." (Royal Statistical Society, Vol.168, No.1, January 2005)

NEW to the second edition:

  • Completely updated chapter on the Verification of Spatial Forecasts taking account of the wealth of new research in the area
  • New separate chapters on Probability Forecasts and Ensemble Forecasts
  • Includes new chapter on Forecasts of Extreme Events and Warnings
  • Includes new chapter on Seasonal and Climate Forecasts
  • Includes new Appendix on Verification Software

Cover image credit: The triangle of barplots shows a novel use of colour for visualizing probability forecasts of ternary categories - see Fig 6b of Jupp et al. 2011, On the visualisation, verification and recalibration of ternary probabilistic forecasts, Phil. Trans. Roy. Soc. (in press).

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About the Book

For more than 100 years, meteorologists have been making forecasts of weather and climatic events. In order to judge the quality of these forecasts and improve forecasting systems, scientists working in this field have developed and applied many different verification and evaluation techniques and scores. Forecast verification is concerned with judging how good are these systems and forecasts.

This book begins with an introduction to the subject of forecast verification and a review of the basic concepts, discussing different types of data that may be forecast before moving on to the main chapters, where each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity (predictand). This book then looks at some of the relationships between economic value and skill scores, and finally moves on to review the key concepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification that receive the most attention in other disciplines. The book concludes with a discussion on the most important topics in the field that are the subject of current research or that would benefit from future research.

Key features of this book includes: An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life case studies

An up to date and practical introduction to the different techniques and an examination of their strengths and weaknesses

Practical advice given by some of the world's leading forecasting experts

Case studies and illustrations of actual verification and its interpretation

Comprehensive glossary and consistent statistical and mathematical definition of commonly used terms This book will be a handy reference for forecast practitioners in Government and private sectororganisations involved in environmental forecasting such as national weather services and climate centres, meteorological and climatological consultants to business and public decision makers, and those who are involved in developing forecasting systems, using forecast products or making decisions based on forecast.

This book is suitable for postgraduates and researchers in forecasting studies, climatology, meteorology and those in the atmospheric oceanic and environmental science community. It is also a useful supplementary textbook for undergraduates in environmental science, climatology and meteorology.

This handy reference introduces the subject of forecast verification and provides a review of the basic concepts, discussing different types of data that may be forecast.

Each chapter covers a different type of predicted quantity (predictand), then looks at some of the relationships between economic value and skill scores, before moving on to review the key concepts and summarise aspects of forecast verification that receive the most attention in other disciplines.

The book concludes with a discussion on the most important topics in the field that are the subject of current research or that would benefit from future research.An easy to read guide of current techniques with real life case studiesAn up-to-date and practical introduction to the different techniques and an examination of their strengths and weaknessesPractical advice given by some of the world's leading forecasting expertsCase studies and illustrations of actual verification and its interpretationComprehensive glossary and consistent statistical and mathematical definition of commonly used terms


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9780471497592
  • Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
  • Height: 237 mm
  • No of Pages: 254
  • Spine Width: 21 mm
  • Width: 162 mm
  • ISBN-10: 0471497592
  • Binding: Hardcover
  • Language: English
  • Series Title: English
  • Weight: 518 gr


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