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Ein Univariables Ökonomisches Analyse- Und Prognosemodell

Ein Univariables Ökonomisches Analyse- Und Prognosemodell

          
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About the Book

Die vorliegende Arbeit ist ein in sich abgeschlossenes Teilergebnis eines von mir geleiteten Forschungsvorhabens, das die Untersuchung und Analyse der wirtschaft- lichen Entwicklungsproblematik mit dem Ziel einer Erweiterung der Einsicht in die Grundsatze und Richtlinien fur die praktische Wirtschafts- und Finanzpolitik zum Gegenstand hat. Diese Arbeit setzt in speziell mathematischer Ausrichtung meine Untersuchungen uber das Konjunkturphiinomen (siehe hierzu insbesondere M. E. KAMP, D. SMOLINSKI und H. ]. WILD, Untersuchungen zur endogenen ProzeBsystematik der marktwirtschaft- lichen Entwicklung im 20. Jahrhundert, Stuttgart 1964) fort, wobei die bisherigen Resultate mir den Mut gaben, auf der Basis der dort gewonnenen Erkenntnisse der okonomischen Phanornenzusammenhange, ein Prognosernodell entwickeln zu lassen. Hierbei handelt es sich urn ein sogenanntes univariables Modell, das irn Gegensatz zu den okonomischen Globalrnodellen zur Analyse und Prognose explizit keine weiteren okonomischen Variablen benutzt. Es wird vielrnehr die V orhersage der Entwicklung okonomischer GroBen aus den analytisch festgestellten GesetzmaBigkeiten in den Bewegungsablaufen der Vergangenheit vorgenommen. Ober die mit einem solchen Ansatz zu erreichende Prognosegute gibt das umfangreiche Zahlenmaterial, welches von den Verfassern in Kapitel 6 zusammengestellt wurde, einen ausfiihrlichen Einblick. Das hier dargestellte Verfahren kann und soll unmittelbar keinen Beitrag zur okonorni- schen Theorienbildung leisten. Es solI nur, von dem ausgehend, was als okonomische Entwicklung begrifflich und tatsachlich vorliegt, eine exakte instrurnentelle Grundlage sein, von der her bestehende Hypothesen zur okonomischen Entwicklungsproblernatik bestatigt oder falsifiziert oder gar ncu konzipiert werden konnen.


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783663061564
  • Publisher: Vs Verlag Fur Sozialwissenschaften
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Height: 244 mm
  • No of Pages: 74
  • Series Title: Forschungsberichte Des Landes Nordrhein-Westfalen
  • Weight: 136 gr
  • ISBN-10: 3663061566
  • Publisher Date: 01 Jan 1968
  • Edition: 1968 ed.
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: N
  • Spine Width: 4 mm
  • Width: 170 mm


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