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Die Prognose Von Wahlergebnissen: Ansätze Und Empirische Leistungsfähigkeit

Die Prognose Von Wahlergebnissen: Ansätze Und Empirische Leistungsfähigkeit

          
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About the Book

Die analytische Soziologie hat sich das Ziel gesetzt, Erklärungen für soziale P- nomene zu finden, indem soziale Mechanismen herausgearbeitet werden, denen zu Folge die Handlungen von Akteuren regelmäßig zu den beobachteten Phä- menen führen. In der vorliegenden Dissertation von Jochen Groß wird ein Pr- nosemodell für Wahlergebnisse entwickelt und umfragebasierten Prognosen sowie Wahlbörsen gegenübergestellt. Prognosen können als eine rigorose Prüfung von theoretischen Erklärun- modellen angesehen werden. Sowohl die verschiedenen umfragebasierten V- fahren, die in der Regel die berühmte Sonntagsfrage verwenden und häufig nicht ihre methodischen Vorgehensweisen z. B. in Bezug auf die Prinzipien der - wichtung offen legen, als auch die von Ökonomen initiierten Wahlbörsen, die durch "reale" Transaktionen das künftige Wahlverhalten simulieren, zielen nur auf die Vorhersage des blanken Wahlresultats ab. Sie versuchen aber nicht, das zugrunde liegende Verhalten der Wählerinnen und Wähler zu erklären. Die E- wicklung eines Prognosemodells hingegen hat das Ziel, den inneren Zusamm- hängen des Entscheidungsprozesses ein Stück weit näher zu kommen, indem z. B. die sozialstrukturelle Zusammensetzung der Wählerschaft vor dem Hint- grund der jeweils typischen Bedürfnisse, Überzeugungen und Opportunitäten der durch diese Merkmale gekennzeichneten Wählergruppen unter dem Stichwort "politisierte Sozialstruktur" berücksichtigt wird. Weitere langfristige strukturelle Faktoren sind das Alter der Bundesrepublik zur Abbildung institutioneller Sk- rose und die langfristige Parteibindung der Wählerinnen und Wähler. Darüber hinaus werden im vorliegenden Modell mittel- und kurzfristige Einflüsse berü- sichtigt, wie die ökonomische Situation (operationalisiert anhand der Arbeits- senrate), politisch relevante Großereignisse und die Wählersympathie für die jeweiligen Spitzenkandidaten.


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783531172736
  • Publisher: Vs Verlag Fur Sozialwissenschaften
  • Publisher Imprint: Vs Verlag Fur Sozialwissenschaften
  • Edition: 2010 ed.
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: Y
  • Spine Width: 18 mm
  • Weight: 399 gr
  • ISBN-10: 3531172735
  • Publisher Date: 15 Apr 2010
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Height: 210 mm
  • No of Pages: 330
  • Series Title: Forschung Und Entwicklung in Der Analytischen Soziologie
  • Sub Title: Ansätze Und Empirische Leistungsfähigkeit
  • Width: 148 mm


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