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Der Olpreis. Eine Empirische Analyse

Der Olpreis. Eine Empirische Analyse

          
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About the Book

Diplomarbeit aus dem Jahr 2008 im Fachbereich BWL - Handel und Distribution, Note: 1,7, Universität Hohenheim, Sprache: Deutsch, Anmerkungen: Die Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit den Einflussfaktoren des Ölpreises. Auf Basis dieser Einflussfaktoren wird auch vor dem Hintergrund der Finanzmarktkrise eine Prognose des Ölpreises bis zum Jahr 2012 vorgenommen., Abstract: In den letzten Jahren und vor allem bis Mitte des Jahres 2008 legte der Preis für ein Barrel Rohöl immer stärker zu. So verdoppelte sich der nominelle Preis für ein Barrel Öl der Sorte Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) zwischen Anfang 2004 und Anfang 2007. Im Jahr 2007 legte er um weitere 57,68 % zu, nur um im Folgejahr den bisherigen nominellen Höchststand von 145,16 US-Dollar zu erreichen, welcher auch real den bisherigen Rekord der Ölkrise der Jahre 1980/81 übertraf und alte Ängste weckte. Doch kaum war dieser Höchststand erreicht, folgte bis zum 16.09.2008 ein massiver Einbruch des Ölpreises um 63,03 % auf nominell 91,49 US-Dollar. Zuletzt notierte der Ölpreis vor mehr als 7 Monaten auf diesem Niveau. Nur sechs Tage später vollführte der Ölpreis jedoch den größten Preissprung innerhalb eines Tages in der Geschichte des Ölhandels um 17,84 % auf 122,61 US-Dollar, nur um einen Tag darauf wieder sehr deutlich auf 107,85 US-Dollar zu fallen. Angesichts dieser Entwicklung und eines von der Internationalen Energie Agentur (IEA) geschätzten Anteils des Öls am Primärenergieverbrauch von 35 % (IEA 2006, S. 66), soll es nun Aufgabe der vorliegenden Diplomarbeit sein, den Ölpreis empirisch zu analysieren, um darauf aufbauend eine Prognose bezüglich des weiteren Ölpreisverlaufs zu ermöglichen. Dazu sollen in Kapitel 2 zunächst die Treiber des Ölpreises analysiert werden, um das Problem stark steigender und volatiler Ölpreise, vor allem in den letzten Jahren, in seinem Ursprung zu begreifen. Denn nur wenn die bisherige Entwicklung des Ölpreises auf die dahinterstehenden Einflussfaktoren zurückgeführt werden kann, i


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783640337118
  • Publisher: Grin Verlag Gmbh
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: N
  • Spine Width: 5 mm
  • Width: 148 mm
  • ISBN-10: 3640337115
  • Publisher Date: 05 Jun 2009
  • Height: 210 mm
  • No of Pages: 82
  • Series Title: German
  • Weight: 118 gr


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