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Denkfallen Beim Planen

Denkfallen Beim Planen

          
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About the Book

Angenommen, ein Bauherr will auf seiner Baustelle dabei sein, wenn ein bestimmter Handwerker mit seiner Arbeit beginnt. Dieser kann aber erst anfangen, wenn ein ande rer Handwerker mit seiner Arbeit fertig ist, was nach Einschatzung des Architekten an derentags mit einer Wahrscheinlichkeit von - sagen wir: - 80 Prozent der Fall ist. Der zweite Handwerker ist bisher in vier von funf Fallen auch zum zugesagten Zeitpunkt erschienen. Soll der Architekt den Bauherrn anrufen, um fur den nachsten Tag mit ihm einen Termin auf der Baustelle zu vereinbaren? Wie gross ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass der Bauherr zu sehen bekommt, was er sehen will? Stellt man jemandem diese Frage, dann zeigt sich, dass die meisten Menschen nicht in der Lage sind, eine Antwort zu geben, die alle Bedingungen halbwegs korrekt beruck sichtigt. Ahnliche Schwierigkeiten treten auf, wenn es darum geht, nicht-lineare Verlaufe (Wachstumskurven, Zinseszinskurven) zu beurteilen; das ist an einem ganz einfachen Beispiel demonstrierbar: Lasst man jemanden das Produkt von 8x7x6x5x4x3x2x1 schat zen, so wird sehr haufig eine Zahl in der Gegend von 2200 genannt. Der korrekte Wert dagegen ist 40320. Die Vielfalt moglicher Beispiele ist nahezu unbegrenzt. Sie reicht vom Wurfelspiel (je mand, der engagiert versucht eine Eins zu wurfeln, lasst den Wurfel eher sanft von der Hand gleiten; wenn es dagegen eine Sechs werden soll, wird der Wurfel deutlich hefti ger uber das Wurfelbrett "gepfeffert"; vgl."


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Product Details
  • ISBN-13: 9783528087746
  • Publisher: Vieweg+teubner Verlag
  • Publisher Imprint: Vieweg+teubner Verlag
  • Height: 216 mm
  • No of Pages: 131
  • Series Title: Paperback
  • Weight: 163 gr
  • ISBN-10: 3528087749
  • Publisher Date: 08 Nov 2018
  • Binding: Paperback
  • Language: German
  • Returnable: N
  • Spine Width: 7 mm
  • Width: 140 mm


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