Excerpt from The Agricultural Outlook for 1933: Prepared by the Staff of the Bureau of Agricultural Economics, Assisted by Representatives of the Agricultural Colleges and Extension Services, and the Federal Farm Board; February 1933

Industrial production, which was reduced from 125 per cent of the 1923 - 25 average in June, 1929, to 58 per cent in July, 1932, advanced to 66 per cent during the last quarter of 1932. The fairly sharp advance during the summer occurred chiefly in the textile industry, partly as a result of shortage of finished goods in the face of a small cotton crop and rising prices; but some recession has occurred since then. By November, substantial increases in the output of other industries such as iron and steel and automobiles occurred, and partly offset the declining output in industries producing consumer goods for current consumption; but by the end of the year even these basic heavy industries showed a declining tendency. The total volume of production of consumer goods rose during the period July to September from 78 to 102 per cent of the 1923 - 1925 average, but receded to 95 per cent in December. The output of the more durable products advanced from their low of 43 per cent in August to 52 per cent in December. At the beginning of 1933 the moderately improved industrial situation as contrasted with the low point reached last July was somewhat unstable, with no definite upward tendencies for the first half of 1933. The food industries will apparently continue to be sustained at a stable level by the fairly even flow cf products from the farms. In the automobile industry production is far below the rate required to replace cars currently worn out, but for some time low -consumer incomes will restrict automobile production and employment. Low-purchasing power similarly influences the iron and steel industry, which depends on orders from the automobile, railroad, and building industries. Orders from each of these three sources are now at extremely low levels with no certain prospects for immediate marked improvement.

Building activity, as measured by contracts awarded, declined from 126 per cent of the 1923 - 1925 average in June, 1929, to 26 per cent in March, 1932. Between July and September, 1932, building activity increased by about 10 per cent, owing to an improvement in nonresidential construction, but lost most of that very moderate gain during the last quarter of 1932 when all lines of con struction work receded more than seasonally, particularly in the case of public works and utilities. Practically no long-term real estate bonds were issued during 1932 to finance new construction. Building activity in general is being retarded by the existence of surplus industrial and commercial capacity, by declining rents, by numerous mortgage foreclosures, and by relatively high building costs in many localities. Long-term loans for residential or other building are difficult to obtain. Individuals and institutions are burdened with past debts, real estate and other, and with insecurity of income. Furthermore, appropriations for construction work by Federal, State, municipal, and public works and public-utility agencies are lower for 1933 than they were for 1932. Extensive new financing is not yet in sight in spite of some recovery in high grade bonds. Industrial activity is, therefore, not likely to receive any marked stimulus during 1933 from construction work.

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